Friday, October 23, 2015

Moonee Valley Tips for Cox Plate Day

R1: #12 Twist Tops ($10) 
Trialed exceptionally at Randwick before being absolutely luckless in the Gimcrack. Drawn very wide, she was pushed forward in a race which fell apart late. Her draw isn't much better this time around, but I'd expect her to be ridden much more patiently here, which should help her cause. Connections opting to run her here instead of versus a small field at Randwick is a nice sign of confidence, as well. 

R6: #10 Bondeiger ($5.50) 
Bondeiger ran very well in a Herbert Power which was dominated by on-pace runners. The slight step-up in trip and meets chief rival Bohemian Lily better off at the weights. Look for him to be the one hitting the line strongly when it's all said and done.

R8: #6 Bow Creek ($7.00)
New import for John O'Shea and the boys in blue has shown flashes of talent that would put these by the wayside. Having beaten Helene Happy Star -- who has since gone on to place in a G1 in Hong Kong -- and a solid field at Leopardstown which included Group-level winners Mustajeeb, Gordon Lord Byron, Top Notch Tonto, and Parish Hall, a return to that form should see him through here relatively easily. He's disappointed in 2015, but a freshening should help and he's racing for the first time with synthetic hoof fillers, which indicate he's perhaps had foot and/or shoe issues in the past, to which his poor recent runs could be attributed. Nevertheless, he has the style of a horse who should take well to Australian racing and if right, could be  too much for these. 

R9: #10 Gailo Chop e/w ($21.00) and #14 Winx ($5.00) 
Pace-wise this race looks to go one of two ways: either they run at a steady tempo which gradually increases as the race continues or they go fast straight from the start, so we'll try to have ourselves covered somewhat either way. Gailo Chop is a solid runner from France who aside from a run at Ascot during which he was overracing from the start, hasn't done much wrong in recent times. His most recent win was eye-catching and his ability to handle an American course rated "good" makes me believe this ground and style of racing will be no problem for the four-year-old son of Deportivo. He'll be forwardly placed in the running, but if he can settle just in behind the main speeds, the race may very well fall straight into his lap. His record at this distance is also a stellar 4-for-6. Should they go hard from the start, however, keep an eye out for Winx. Chris Waller's wonder mare may be ever so slightly compromised by her draw which may force her further out the back than ideal, but her turn of foot is second to none, which she showed in the Epsom Handicap. Sure these are tougher, but should she get any sort of a setup. she'll be in the mix late. 




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