Friday, October 23, 2015

Moonee Valley Tips for Cox Plate Day

R1: #12 Twist Tops ($10) 
Trialed exceptionally at Randwick before being absolutely luckless in the Gimcrack. Drawn very wide, she was pushed forward in a race which fell apart late. Her draw isn't much better this time around, but I'd expect her to be ridden much more patiently here, which should help her cause. Connections opting to run her here instead of versus a small field at Randwick is a nice sign of confidence, as well. 

R6: #10 Bondeiger ($5.50) 
Bondeiger ran very well in a Herbert Power which was dominated by on-pace runners. The slight step-up in trip and meets chief rival Bohemian Lily better off at the weights. Look for him to be the one hitting the line strongly when it's all said and done.

R8: #6 Bow Creek ($7.00)
New import for John O'Shea and the boys in blue has shown flashes of talent that would put these by the wayside. Having beaten Helene Happy Star -- who has since gone on to place in a G1 in Hong Kong -- and a solid field at Leopardstown which included Group-level winners Mustajeeb, Gordon Lord Byron, Top Notch Tonto, and Parish Hall, a return to that form should see him through here relatively easily. He's disappointed in 2015, but a freshening should help and he's racing for the first time with synthetic hoof fillers, which indicate he's perhaps had foot and/or shoe issues in the past, to which his poor recent runs could be attributed. Nevertheless, he has the style of a horse who should take well to Australian racing and if right, could be  too much for these. 

R9: #10 Gailo Chop e/w ($21.00) and #14 Winx ($5.00) 
Pace-wise this race looks to go one of two ways: either they run at a steady tempo which gradually increases as the race continues or they go fast straight from the start, so we'll try to have ourselves covered somewhat either way. Gailo Chop is a solid runner from France who aside from a run at Ascot during which he was overracing from the start, hasn't done much wrong in recent times. His most recent win was eye-catching and his ability to handle an American course rated "good" makes me believe this ground and style of racing will be no problem for the four-year-old son of Deportivo. He'll be forwardly placed in the running, but if he can settle just in behind the main speeds, the race may very well fall straight into his lap. His record at this distance is also a stellar 4-for-6. Should they go hard from the start, however, keep an eye out for Winx. Chris Waller's wonder mare may be ever so slightly compromised by her draw which may force her further out the back than ideal, but her turn of foot is second to none, which she showed in the Epsom Handicap. Sure these are tougher, but should she get any sort of a setup. she'll be in the mix late. 




Friday, October 2, 2015

10/2/2013 Plays from Australia

10/2/2013:

Randwick (Aus A) 

R1: Eyezoff (Aus $41.00)
Son of Zoffany was very green in his trial, but he did show quite a bit of talent. His trainer does well with this type and given his greenness, an outside draw might not be a bad thing -- one who could make the frame at a big price.

R2: Slumber Party (Aus $15.00) 
Gai Waterhouse's daughter of Snitzel was very professional in her trial. She's one we have our eye on for bigger and better things down the road and Waterhouse knows how to improve these types rather quickly. Calliope is the one to beat off the stellar trial time, but Slumber Party -- from the more ideal draw -- could be the one to break up the party.

R6: I'm Imposing (Aus $13.00)
I'm Imposing should relish this step up in trip to 2000m and drawn six, he can sit in behind the three main speeds. Twice a winner out of three attempts over this course and distance, expect him to be thereabouts near the finish.

R7: Sweynesse (Aus $17.00)
While some will quickly say he's not the same horse, I'm of the belief that Sweyenesse has been unlucky in that he's caught soft ground, over which he doesn't not travel well, in his most recent outings. That won't be the case here and with quite a bit of speed signed on, he figures to be flattered by the projected race shape.

R9: Chance To Dance (Aus $8.00)
Son of Teofilo won well over The United States first up. He finished eighth over soft ground in the Hill Stakes, but still wasn't far off of it at the finish. Third up here, he could improve further and the step up to 2400m -- over which he's finished in the top two in three of four runs -- will be right up his alley.