Friday, February 6, 2015

Down to the Wire + Weekend Picks

This week on Down to the Wire we discussed the Withers and Robert B Lewis, both of which are Kentucky Derby preps, as well as, the Donn Handicap for older horses at Gulfstream Park. While we see the favorites looking good bets in both of the three-year-old races, we're both against probable favorite Lea in the Donn. 

I also have my analysis and play for the X-Country pick four posted at Against the Number, if you're looking to get in on that action. 




Weekend Quick Picks:

2/6/2015

Rosehill (AUS A) Race 4 -- #1 Odyssey Moon
Snitzel colt out of the Arch mare Run To The Moon caught the eye in a big way when winning his debut and he looks to have more upside than the others he'll face here. This colt looks to be on the path to bigger and better things with this run simply being a stepping stone along the way. 

Rosehill (AUS A) Race 5 -- #3 Delectation
Ran on well despite being short of room late when second to Brazen Beau in a Group 1 at Flemington last out. Proven class with rock solid form and has trialed forwardly as of late having won a strong trial that included the likes of Scissor Kick and Panzer Division and Randwick last month. 

Rosehill (AUS A) Race 6 -- #6 Plucky Belle 
Six-year-old mare hasn't raced since June, but her most recent form is competitive in this level. Likely favorite Catkins will be tough to beat, as she always goes well fresh, but Plucky Belle has had her moments first-up and her most recent trial over Neena Rock was nice and easy, in which she traveled well on the lead throughout. 

Rosehill (AUS A) Race 8 -- #12 Spacecraft (win/show)
Looks lone speed at a big price in a field where a few of the classier horses are first up and/or finished off their spring campaigns poorly. Track conditions and distance should suit for what should be a very fit horse having not having had a recent break. 

Sha Tin Race 7 -- #7 Bubble Chic win/show + 7-8-10 quinella
Bubble Chic enters here with a bit of muddied up form, but given he was most recently entered in races that were too far for him and before that he was taken back, which is not a tactic with which he's performed well. Drawn outside here, he should go forward once again and back over his preferred 1800m, he could get a slipstream run just in behind Khaya, who's connections have already stated will try to lead at a solid tempo given his light weight. Bubble Chic recently looked really well despite being restrained into last in a trial and his recent trackwork stood out. Helene Super Star, formerly Lines of Battle who ran in the Kentucky Derby, enters here in solid form and is another who figures to sit just off Khaya (if he can break well, which can be an issue for him). 

Sha Tin Race 8 -- #1 Ishvara (best bet)
Consistent runner looks to not only have this field's measure despite carrying top weight, but he's drawn well and the race shape also looks to be in his favor. Simply too good for these. 

Sha Tin Race 9 -- #13 Pikachu + 13 / 2,7,10
Pikachu has really come into his own in recent months and carrying a light weight here, he looks to get a nice run in behind the main speeds. Precision King enters in good form and figures to go forward, but will be pressured by the likes of Wonderful Moments who should soften him up and I'm not sure the switch from Happy Valley back to Sha Tin necessarily suits as far as his win chances are concerned. Trump is interesting as a longshot, as he's returning back to 1400m, over which he's ran well previously and he should be well placed forwardly in behind the two main speeds. 

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