Friday, November 28, 2014

Weekend Picks 11/29/2014

Churchill Downs Race 9: #8 West Coast Belle (4/1)
It's not often you see a daughter of Tapit successfully come from off the pace as a two-year-old and this filly has now done it twice in a row and despite two very different race shapes. The potential for another zippy pace here makes her a contender in what will be her third career start. 

Del Mar Race 1: #2 Zip It Up (5/1)
Son of City Zip closed well to get up for third late in his debut. Dortmund was an impressive winner that day and there don't appear to be any of his level in this field. The switch to turf and stretchout are positives for this guy who's bred for turf top and bottom and shows very little early speed. Add to that, this barn does very well dirt to turf, sprint to route, and second start for maidens and this guy looks very well meant in this spot.

Del Mar Race 3: #1 Big Cazanova (3/1)
Draw a line through the marathon, which was always going to be too far and his trip in the Jockey Club Gold Cup is deceiving because he looked loaded before the far turn and was practically eased. Aside from those, he fits well in this spot, as he's shown an affinity for the Del Mar synthetic and this distance suits him more than his toughest competitors. 

Del Mar Race 4: #9 Bolo (5/2)
True turfer put in a strong outside run to get up to fifth (beaten two and and quarter lengths) despite not getting the necessary pace setup in his debut. Temple City has shown to have a strong crop of juveniles this year and the slight step up in trip he'll get here should suit.

Del Mar Race 6: #7 Bobbi Grace (7/2)
Ran well in US debut when seen finishing third in a stakes won by Her Emmynency despite covering 57 ft (~6.7 lengths) more than the winner and 33ft (~3.8 lengths) more than the runner up. Drawn much better this time around, she figures to have a say in in the finish.

Del Mar Race 8: #3 Flamboyant (6/1)
On class and form, this should be California Chrome's race to lose, but I expect him to be aggressively ridden in this small field over the turf for the first time. He'll take quite a bit of money in this spot and for that reason is worth taking on. California Chrome may have to work a touch to be up on the lead here and if so, it could set up for Flamboyant, who has been consistent since arriving in the US and has the sharpest turn of foot in the field. He's run well against more proven turf horses than these all year long and while first time blinkers is an interesting decision, the price will be right to take a shot.

Del Mar Race 9: Rattataptap (6/1)
Tapit out of a graded stakes winning mare with tons of speedy works on the tab and a trainer who does well with his runners' first start makes it very likely we won't get anywhere near this morning line price on the day, but for the reasons just mentioned, she looks every bit a major contender in this spot. Has a win early pedigree and enters here with a bullet work on the 23rd. 


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