Thursday, September 25, 2014

Super Saturday Picks

This week on Down to the Wire we previewed the Joe Hirsh Turf, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Awesome Again, and Oklahoma Derby, so if you want to hear more in-depth analysis of those races, feel free to watch below. 





Saturday, September 27, 2014 (Super Saturday!) Picks and Plays:  

Belmont R4: G2 Kelso -- #4 River Rocks (M/L 5/1)
While Itsmyluckyday got the win for us last time out in the Woodward, his workmanlike performance on what was labeled by Timeform as a speed biased track didn't necessarily impress. Here he runs into a sharp four-year-old by the name of River Rocks, who has won three straight -- two in wire to wire fashion -- and while I don't typically bet sprinters stretching out to a route, he appears to be the lone speed here. Bradester also looms a threat coming off of his win over an in-form Carve in the Ack Ack. 
Plays: #4 River Rocks to win
Double (starting with race 4): #4 River Rocks and #5 Bradester with #4 Stanwyck


Belmont R7: G1 Flower Bowl -- #9 Stephanie's Kitten (M/L 5/2)
She may have come up just short, but there was no shame in Stephanie's Kitten's performances in her past two outings where she finished a neck behind Somali Lemonade after closing into a slow early pace and was runner-up to Euro Charline after putting in an impressive closing run down the stretch. This may be a Grade 1, but this field is not of the quality she faced in the Beverly D. on Arlington Million day, so a repeat of her last run should be enough to get it done here. 
Plays: #9 Stephanie's Kitten to win
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,6,7,9 / 1,2,6 / 1 / 8,9,10 --> $18.00

Santa Anita R6: G1 Frontrunner -- #5 Red Button (M/L 20/1) SCRATCHED 
Given his breeding (Distorted Humor-Skipping Around, by Skip Trial), Red Button should appreciate this stretchout to a route more than many in this field and as a half brother to multiple graded stakes winner Sugar Shake, who twice won in routes at Santa Anita, this move could be just what the doctor ordered. He hasn't been one to show much early zip in his races and each of his three runs have come on tracks labeled by Timeform as speed favoring, so if the newly resurfaced Santa Anita dirt track is playing fair, I'd expect him to have a much improved performance. He enters here boasting a few quick local works and Glatt has had success with this synthetic to dirt move. 
Plays: #5 Red Button win/place/show ladder (example: $2 to win, $4 to place, $6 to show)


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