Thursday, August 14, 2014

Down to the Wire: Arlington Million Edition

This week on Down to the Wire we have special guest Ryan Dickey join us as we discuss the big stakes from Arlington Park, which is highlighted by the Arlington Million, as well as the G1 Alabama at Saratoga. 




Saturday, August 16, 2014: Arlington Park

Race 5: Hatoof S. (Division 1) -- #5 V V Goodnight
This race is an interesting one as Mizzen Miss appears to potentially be the lone speed for a trainer who does well with this sprint-route move, but she seems to have relished cutting back to five furlongs and I couldn't take her on top at a short price, but if she can get the distance, she's a major threat here. Instead, I've sided with V V Goodnight, a daughter of Midnight Lute who enters here with all sorts of trip notes. She won two straight earlier this season before having three straight races with issues at the start and despite that, she finished strongly in each of those. This distance is right up her alley and she should be flying late for the red hot Tom Proctor. 
*Others to consider: #9 Mizzen Miss, #10 Zubi Zubi Zu

Race 7: American St. Leger S. -- #11 Suntracer
In this race, I'm going with Mr. Reliable in Suntracer, who although he can be tough to win with, always runs his race and finds himself in contention late more often than not. Second in this race last year, he enters here off what I considered a nice effort in the G3 Stars and Stripes in which he was flying late despite an agonizingly slow pace set by The Pizza Man. Defending champion Dandino enters here with deceiving form as his two most recent results are poor, but the come against the best company in this division as is highlighted by the first and third place finishers in his most recent race both coming straight back to win at Glorious Goodwood. He clearly needed the run last out and if he's anywhere near himself, he'll be mighty tough. Eye of the Storm is interesting for Aidan O'Brien, but I'm never a fan of the quick turnaround for Euros shipping out here, so I'll have to pass. 
*Others to consider: #2 Dandino

Race 8: G1 Secretariat S. -- #6 Adelaide
Aidan O'Brien sends Adelaide back for more in America after finishing second (by a neck) in the Belmont Derby despite entering that race on short rest. O'Brien has also entered Belisarius, surely as a pacemaker, so there's no questioning Adelaide is VERY well meant in this spot. At a big price, I'm tempted to use Highball, who closed nicely despite some trip troubles last time out, but I couldn't put you off of singling Adelaide either.
**Others to consider: #2 Highball

Race 9: G1 Beverly D. S -- #1 Just the Judge
Irish Classic winner Just the Judge enters here off two straight good efforts behind Thistle Bird, who was in the form of her life prior to her recent retirement, Firm ground isn't an issue, although a bit of cut in the ground certainly wouldn't hurt. Also keep an eye on the weights (especially with the older European runners), Just the Judge carried 136 lbs in her most recent effort and this weekend, she'll carry only 123 lbs. Alterite interests me despite her poor first showing in her only start this year, she never finished out of the top three in three US G1's prior to that start and she'll be improved for the run off what was over a seven month layoff. Tannery is a horse who I've been a fan of for quite some time and at what will likely be a big price, I'll include her knowing she loves this distance and should get a nice pace setup despite a poor showing last time out. Euro Charline could factor in here and although I prefer others before her, the added distance should benefit this Group 1 placed three-year-old and having Ryan Moore aboard never hurts. 
**Others to consider: #9 Alterite, #6 Tannery, #2 Euro Charline

Race 10: G1 Arlington Million -- #2 Smoking Sun
I found it tough to choose between Smoking Sun and Real Solution, who are both clearly well meant in this spot and exit strong last time out efforts, but ultimately I sided with the son of Smart Strike based off the company he's kept recently. After winning a Group 2 in France to start off his year, he struggled going further over soft ground versus the likes of Cirrus Des Aigles and Arc winner Treve, but he rebounded back nicely from that when finishing a strong second in a Group 1 in Singapore behind Dan Excel (formerly Dunboyne Express), who himself is a Group 1 winner in Hong Kong. Real Solution appears to be trending upward following a good performance in the G1 Man 'O War followed by a nice win in the G1 Manhattan and his form has recently been franked by both Kaigun and Seek Again. 
**Others to consider: #6 Real Solution

0 comments:

Post a Comment