Friday, July 25, 2014

Down to the Wire: Haskell Invitational Edition

Down to the Wire is back this week with a loaded preview that covers a maiden race for two-year-olds featuring a half to top American sire Tapit, as well as, the Jim Dandy, San Diego, Bing Crosby, and the Haskell. 






Sunday, July 27, 2014: Monmouth Park Race 12 -- G1 Haskell Invitational S. (9f): Wildcat Red
The featured Haskell Invitational is race twelve of a very nice fourteen race card on Sunday at Monmouth Park. The favorite here should be Untapable, who won the Kentucky Oaks and is facing the boys for the first time. I think she's definitely capable of winning this race, but at what will be very short odds, I'll pass and look for more value elsewhere. I think the second choice Bayern is up against it from a pace and distance standpoint, as I went into further detail about for Danonymous Racing. Ultimately, I've sided with two contenders who I think will be overlays, but still have a good chance of winning here. My top choice is Wildcat Red, who not only is fast, as he's shown us on multiple occasions including his most recent run at Gulfstream Park, but he can rate just slightly off the pace if necessary. With Bayern and Social Inclusion in this field, third place just behind the two of them may turn out to be the "sweet spot" and if Wildcat Red can find himself thereabouts, he should have a big chance. His most recent race was visually one of the most impressive I've seen from any of these three-year-olds and runner-up East Hall has since come back to win the Ohio Derby. It's also worth noting he lost his only attempt at nine furlongs by a neck to the highly regarded Constitution. It may not have been a win, but he's more proven at this distance than most of these in my book. The other runner I'll be using everywhere is Medal Count. I'm a big fan of this horse and really think of this three-year-old crop, he's one of the later developing types who will continue to improve. He, in my opinion, is a legitimate ten furlong horse, so nine may be a touch on the shorter side, but his versatile running style puts him in just about every race and if the pace gets a bit chippy up front, which is possible, he'll be flying late. 

Plays: #8 Wildcat Red (M/L 10/1) and #9 Medal Count (M/L 8/1) to win (if odds 8/1 or better) and in an exacta box. Also, play the double (starting race 11): #7 Mshawish / 8,9

0 comments:

Post a Comment