Thursday, July 10, 2014

Down to the Wire: Arlington Handicap Edition

Another week and another group of nice turf races on tap. This time around, @Derbyologist and I previewed a large field of two-year-olds going 6f on the turf at Belmont -- plus, four stakes races from Arlington on Saturday. 





**A note, this video was filmed on Wednesday night and since filming, Eskendereya has gotten his first winner: Isabella Sings at Belmont (6f, turf, MSW).



Picks from the video: 


Friday, July 11, 2014 -- Belmont Race 4
--Candice: #8 Magic Apple over #3 Security Risk
--Craig: #3 Security Risk, #6 Escondido

Saturday July 12: Arlington Park Races 7-10:
R7: Candice: #5 Finnegans Wake
Craig: #2 War Dancer

R8: Candice: #3 Suntracer, #6 Seton Hall, #7 The Pizza Man 
Craig: #8 Olympic Thunder

R9: Candice: #7 Our Channel, #10 Afortable
Craig: #4 Schoolofhardrocks

R10: Candice: #5 Kepi, #11 Maid on a Mission
Craig: #1 Embarr


Friday July 11, 2014 -- Newmarket:

Race 1: Bragging (e/w if odds 9/1 or better, to win only otherwise) (Non Runner)
This American-bred daughter of Exchange Rate is one of the more unexposed runners in here. A winner two back at Windsor, the form of that race has since come back quite strong with the second, third, fifth, and seventh place finishers having won since. That was over good to firm ground, which she won't get today. She did finish second last out behind Native Heart, who has now won two straight, does her best running over soft ground, and carried much less weight than Bragging. Better off in the weights here, I think Bragging could take another step forward for Juddmonte and Sir Michael Stoute.

Race 3: Kiyoshi (no bet if odds less than 5/1, e/w if odds 9/1 or more, to win only otherwise)
Followers of this blog will know this isn't the first time I've tipped up Kiyoshi and on potentially soft ground, she looks likely to stand a better chance and even moreso if Sky Lantern and/or Integral end up not running due to the ground. She clearly needed the run at Ascot and will be better off for it. The jockey booking is a bit worrisome, but I can't not give her one more chance to fulfill the potential I've thought she had. This will be a very telling race for the young daughter of Dubawi as far as where she stands in this crop.

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