Thursday, June 19, 2014

Royal Ascot Day 4: Preview and Tips

Race 1: Albany Stakes:
For some bizarre reason unbeknownst to me we've done alright in these juvenile fillies races, which are so often a bit of a craps shoot, and let's hope it continues here with Patience Alexander. Tiggy Wiggy, who ran a credible second as our selection in the Queen Mary earlier in the meet, was half a length behind Patience Alexander over good ground at York with Appleberry further behind in fourth. She's untested over this distance, however, so even though her form is strong, we can't settle for too short of a price here. As far as the others are concerned, Wesley Ward does have a runner here in Sunset Glow, but she lost to the War Front filly Lindy in her debut and Lindy has since returned a well-beaten third in a juvenile stakes.
Pick: Patience Alexander to win (if odds 3/1 or better)

Race 3: King Edward VII Stakes:
Surely, he'll go off as the favorite, but Adelaide looks to be quite the progressive type for Aidan O'Brien. This son of Galileo won a Group 3 over ten furlongs at the Curragh last time out and the manner with which he finished made me think he would certainly appreciate the step up in trip that he'll get here, in what is his third start off the layoff. The bulk of these runners are relatively exposed and tough to side with, as a result, so we'll side with the chalk and hope for a decent enough price come post time. 
Pick: Adelaide to win (if odds 2/1 or better)

Race 4: Coronation Stakes:
After an uninspiring start as far as the prices are concerned, things get interesting here as we're going to side with Kiyoshi, who will be making her three-year-old debut. I quite fancied her chances at getting a place in the 1000 Guineas before she was unfortunately declared a non-runner, but her chances seem even better to get the win if she at all lives up to her two-year-old form. Not only did she defeat Ihtimal in her maiden win, but she subsequently won the Albany here at Royal Ascot over faster ground, defeating the likes of Sandiva, Joyeuse, Wedding Ring, who all have gone on to win as three-year-olds. Yes, she finished behind Rizeena and Tapestry, but she did make an impressive run down the stretch despite running a bit greenly when seen drifting to her right on two separate occasions there. If she's matured over the break, she should have progressed past those two, who were more the early maturing type. Ken McPeek runner Rosalind shows up here and while she's probably up against it as far as the win is concerned, her running style and form does indicate that she fits in this spot. It's also worth noting she ran without Lasix in her two most recent runs: a G1 win on the synthetic track at Keeneland where she showcased her strong turn of foot and fourth in the Kentucky Oaks on dirt. If anything, I worry that this trip may be too short for her and she hasn't logged a published work since her run in the Kentucky Oaks, but she'll certainly love the ground and is worth a play if you're a fan of hers and her odds are double digits. 
Pick: Kiyoshi e/w (if odds 9/1 or better, to win if worse), Rosalind e/w (if odds 10/1 or better, no bet if worse)




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