Thursday, May 29, 2014

Down to the Wire: Penn Mile Edition




5/31/2014: Penn National Race 4 -- Penn Mile S. (8f, turf): #8 Divine Oath
This field is loaded with talent, and more importantly from a handicapping perspective, it's loaded with front-end speed. Both Bobby's Kitten and Storming Inti are quality colts who I expect to win races this year, but both will almost certainly be pace casualties here. Ultimately, I've settled on the Pletcher trained Divine Oath, a lightly raced son of Broken Vow who most recently finished a better than it looks on paper second to Mr. Speaker in the G2 Coolmore Lexington S. The recent winner of the G2 American Turf S. at Churchill Downs, Global View, should also be able to take advantage of the likely pace scenario, but I do expect Divine Oath to get the first jump on him. First time turf starter Coastline, also warrants consideration based on his solid performances on synthetic against quality competition, not to mention I'd expect him to benefit from the cutback in distance. 
**Others to Consider: #1 Global View & #7 Coastline

5/31/2014: Belmont Race 5 -- Mike Lee S. (7f): #5 Deceived
This is a horse I've been high on since his maiden win and although he couldn't compete in the G3 Gotham, a cutback in distance and a drop in class should put him in a much more favorable position, but this is likely a race where if you aren't on the Uncle Sigh bandwagon, then you'd probably want to spread. 
**Others to Consider: #2 Uncle Sigh , #7 Swell, & #9 Loki's Vengeance

5/31/2014: Woodbine Race 8 -- G2 Connaught Cup S. (7f, turf): #8 Occasional View
Perhaps hoping for the 8/1 M/L on this guy is asking a bit much, but this race looks to be his for the taking as he switches back to the turf in what will be his third start off the layoff following a win at Keeneland and a runner-up finish locally, both of which were on synthetic at today's distance. There is plenty of early speed here, which also helps his case.

5/31/2014: Santa Anita Race 8 -- G1 American Oaks (10f, turf): #2 Nashoba's Gold
She won't be a fantastic price, but there's little reason to doubt Nashoba's Gold is the one to beat in what will be her G1 debut. This daughter of Smart Strike, a 1/2 to multiple G1 winner Nashoba's Key, has improved by leaps and bounds in her two most recent starts and she has all the looks of a major player in what is a deep three-year-old turf fillies division this year.
**Others to Consider: #6 Tiz the Key, #4 Sweet Bliss, #8 Room Service 

Horse to Watch
Last week, Horses to Watch Gala Award, Flamboyant, & Can'thelpbelieving finished 1-2-3 in the Pennine Ridge S. at Belmont ($25.20 exacta, $90.00 trifecta) and Code West finished second in the Majestic Light S.

This week's Horses to Watch who are entered:
5/31/2014 Penn National R4 -- Penn Mile: #8 Divine Oath
5/31/2014 Prairie Meadows R8 & 6/1/2014 Churchill Downs R8 (cross entered): Wizardly 




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