Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, April 26th, 2014

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $30,000-$25,000 (6f): #4 Princess Mon (ML 8/1)
Daughter of Mustanfar broke slow, had a very wide trip, and still only finished one half length behind the winner versus similar at Turfway Park. The surface is a bit questionable, but she's been working well leading up to this and I expect a big effort here.
*Others to consider: #6 Little Gidding (ML 5/2), #8 Distinct Diva (ML 5/1)

Race 2: Claiming $30,000-$25,000 (8.5f): #4 Cold Facts (ML 3/1)
A winner over a mile last time out, Cold Facts sports some of the best speed figures of the bunch, not to mention he appears to like running at Churchill Downs, as he's finished in the top three five out of the seven times he's run there.
*Other to consider: #2 Ration (ML 5/2)

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming $80,000 (6f): #4 Sky Girl (ML 7/2)
Finished third in 2014 debut over the all weather at Keeneland, but figures to improve second time off the bench. Mott trainee is three out of four at Churchill Downs, including a victory last year in the G3 Dogwood.
*Other to consider: #1 Anahauc (ML 3/1)

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (8f, Turf): #11 I'mbetterthangood (AE) (ML 3/1) 
Ken McPeek's I'mbetterthangood has only finished outside the top three once in six career starts and ran a big race over the all weather at Keeneland last time out before being caught late -- losing by only a neck. He'll be trying turf for the first time and the slightly shorter distance should suit. Julien Leparoux gets the mount.
*Others to consider: #4 Dynamic Decision (ML 6/1), #7 Street Chief (ML 9/2)

Race 5: Starter Allowance $5,000 (7f): #8 Highroller Dave (ML 7/5)
Here's your single for the day. Tom Amoss' Highroller Dave is as consistent as they come, having two wins and never finishing outside of the top four in his last five starts. He drops in class here and Rosie Napravnik gets the mount.

Race 6: Claiming $25,000 (6f): #2 Phat Day (ML 6/5)
Probably not the best betting race of the day, as Phat Day, who loves Churchill Downs, will be looking to get his seventh straight win for Tom Amoss. He moves up in class here, but on paper appears to be too fast for these.
*Other to consider: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast (ML 5/1)

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (8f, Turf): #7 Joyful Moments (ML 5/1)
Son of Henrythenavigator out of a Dynaformer mare is bred to take to the turf and after two fourth place finishes on dirt, he'll get his first crack at the green stuff here. He appears better suited to today's distance of one mile and trainer Gary Hartlage excels with first time turf starters.
*Others to consider: #10 Great Minds (ML 4/1), #1 Identity Crisis (ML 8/1)

Race 8: G3 Derby Trial (8f): #10 Myositis Dan (ML 5/1)
In a race that looks to be loaded with early speed, I'll side with an off the pace runner in Myositis Dan, who most recently won a seven furlong allowance race at Keeneland quite nicely. His two career wins have come on the all weather, but two good second place finishes on dirt at Gulfstream, one of which was over eventual Arkansas Derby winner Danza, suggests the surface won't be too much of an issue.

Race 9: Claiming $5,000 (8f): #4 Oddity (ML 10/1)
Son of Osidy out of a Distorted Humor mare has been running on the all weather and turf as of late -- and has been fairly consistent in doing so. He returns to the Churchill dirt, on which he has a runner-up and a fourth place finish in four starts. Solid works in prep for this one.
*Others to consider: #5 Dangerous Dream (ML 5/2)

Race 10: Maiden Claiming $10,000 (8.5f): #4 Lucky Pursuit (ML 7/2)
Was bet down in last outing, which was over course and distance, but a horror trip led to him finishing a distant second versus similar last time out. He hasn't ran since last June, but he sports quick works and the Maker-Napravnik combo, of course, doesn't hurt.
*Others to consider: #5 Foggy Goggle (ML 15/1)


1 comments:

Post a Comment