Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Churchill Downs Picks for Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Race 1: #1 Emma Lushka (ML 8-1)
This looks to be a competitive, albeit fairly weak race. That being said, I've sided with Emma Lushka, who hasn't shown much in her only two starts, but has tons of potential from a breeding standpoint. This daughter of 2008 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerofthenile, one of America's top freshman sires, has the breeding and connections of a winner. She's shown speed at times and will be tough if she can put a full race together.

Race 2: #5 Sweetonrich (ML 5-2)
I found it hard to look past Sweetonrich, who looks to be coming into her own after finishing third and second in her two most recent races, both of which were at Churchill Downs. She looks well-suited against these and a solid run could see her taking home the win.

Race 3: #6 Bellarmine (ML 5-1)
Earlier this year, Bellarmine was running against some of the top three year olds in the country and he even notched a win over G3 Matt Winn Stakes winner Code West. After a failed attempt at running on turf and a poor showing over a sloppy track at Parx, he'll return to the dirt and drop down in class here. If he can rebound back to form, he'll be tough to beat.

Race 4: #4 An Shanachie (ML 12-1)
This five year old son of Indian Charlie appears to have turned a corner this year, as he's won two of his three starts this season. In fact, his only race of the year that did not result in a victory was two back when he finished fourth after starting from the innermost post on Santa Anita's downhill turf course. He set quick fractions early on in that 6 1/2 furlong contest and was nosed out of third. He's recorded solid works as of late and the course and distance should suit him well.

Race 5: #5 Lil Napoleon (ML 15-1)
Despite tough starts in both of his first two races, Lil Napoleon showed some decent closing speed after being shuffled to the back of the field. This distance should suit him well and if he can avoid another poor break, he should challenge late.

Race 6: #8 All American Girl (ML 12-1)
After a series of solid works, All American Girl looks more than ready to make her debut. The daughter of prolific sire Tapit, All American Girl is out of a winning Stormy Atlantic mare.

Race 7: #5 Marchwood (ML 5-2)
Since coming to America, Marchwood has finished in the money in seven of his ten starts, including his most recent, which was a win at Indiana Downs after going four-wide. He'll be flying late.

Race 8: #7 Cougar Ridge (ML 4-1)
There hasn't been much to write home about Cougar Ridge since he arrived in America a few months ago, but even though his two starts on this side of the pond haven't been flashy, they have been solid. He was forced to go extremely wide in both of those races and still ended up with respectable finishes. Perhaps his third start in America and a better trip could allow him to show his true potential.

Race 9: #8 Cold Facts (ML 5-1)
Cold Facts had been the epitome of consistency when finishing second in three of his first four starts, before a poor showing in his most recent start. He has since been freshened and a bullet five furlong work may signal that he's ready to come back. At his best, he towers above this field.

Race 10: #3 Aspergia (ML 10-1)
The three year old daughter of Langfuhr finished fourth in her most recent start, which was her first off of a nearly four month layoff. That being said, she was flying late in the race, but after starting poorly, she was left with too much work to do. She figures to improve in her second start since the break in what appears to be a wide open race.









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